“I feel myself to be Indiana Jones, who has just made a new discovery” – these words of Mikheil Saakashvili made clear number of issues: otherwise, some of us though he felt himself to be the Terminator, especially in that times of august 008, in the center of Gori, with a military waistcoat put on (that movie ended in a very short time), while the others though he was Tarzan, when glanced him half nude in the TV sequence shot on the Batumi seashore. Nobody can exclude that tomorrow he will feel himself as Spiderman or Batman. But no! He cant be the Batman - this vacancy has already been occupied by another man.share[Dimitri Moniava. 00:57 23-12-2010]
President in the Batman’s Uniform
Abdala Bukaram – he was the president of Ecuador who walked in Batman’s uniform and felt himself fine until 1997, when the country’s parliament being encircled by the civil demonstration participants, dismissed him from the position by an unprecedented reason - “Mentally incapable to perform the duties of Head of State”
No parallels, but we’d like simply to remind a sad history: “Abdala Bukaram was a charismatic lawyer occurred on the top of the state power as a result of an unbridled populism (like another man, as I remember, but I‘ll not say his name). His nickname was quite simple and understandable – “El Loco” (“Mad”, in Spanish). He liked to appoint his friends, relatives and pretty women on the top positions: “Beauty is the main thing – he underlined – A pretty woman can attract any politician (for a clear reason, I wanted to write “Investor”, but abstained myself)”
During the concert shows Bukaram was jumping on the stage, moreover, he was singing the songs and even issued the compact-disc titled “President’s Songs” (perhaps, the similar events will become real in our country, as well). He called his political opponents as the spies of foreign state (under the term “Foreign State” he implied the USA)
This idyll ended in early 1997, when Bukaram invited to Ecuador a very popular “Guru” in the field of economy – Domingo Cavalo, from Argentina, became greatly enthusiastic with his recommendations and . . . put on the Batman’s uniform and appeared in the TV studio to report personally to the whole nation the plan of economic survival of the country.
Taxes are sharply increase, municipal charges and transportation fees as well as the rate of inflation reached a critical point, and, recently, the prices on the food products jumped up considerably (No parallels, no!). At the same time, Burakam wearing the Batman’s uniform was standing before the TV cameras and saying about a unprecedented renaissance of the country
The films shot in that days of overturn of Burakam, show well how people is running o the Presidential Palace – absolutely spontaneously, without any preparation – some of them in the home dresses and shoes, with hammers, port, in their hands; They did not want elementary to see him any more.
But, despite the general madness, Burakam proved to be rather clever not to fire the people, since he realized that there remained no preconditions for his further stay on the post and, he preferred to run away from the country. As some people say, he still considered himself as he president and keeps in the wardrobe the Batman’s uniform hoping that the time will come to put it on again
Despite the fact whether this or that unsuccessful leader thinks he is the Batman, the Indiana Jones or the King-Kong (quite a wide choice is offered by the cinematography , but classical phrase – “I am Napoleon” is not any more in fashion), a moment comes when he must go. This happens where a leader has not any more a possibility to carry our more or less positive policy and, there exist no favorable foreign-policy factors to preserve the state power. A time period from recognizing an existence of such factors to “dismantling” the state power, is very difficult to pass. To this end, a chrestomathic example is the late period of governance of the Somosa’s dynasty in Nicaragua.
Many persons (their number is critically large) considers that Saakashvili’s power has not any more the possibilities to conduct an effective and result-giving policy, settle the territorial integrity-related problems, guarantee the country’s security, introduce a real democracy and take steps for promoting the economic development. During the last years, especially – after the 2008 August War, no progress has been observed in any of the above listed directions, while for a governing group, preservation of their position in the state power is he main purpose, that is impossible to achieve. By view of the internal policy, Mikheil Saakashvili is facing with the same difficulties, as the “Batman” Abdala Bukaram in that times. As to the external factors, here the things are of the much more complex nature.
Captured by Obsessions
The US foreign policy, undoubtedly one of the most well-sensible and effective throughout the world, has one defect. Americans are declined to obsessions and, frequently follow incorrect strategy, even in cases when the facts prove that it is mistake. In all major crushes of the US foreign policy the signs of obsessions are clearly seen with the naked eye
Two examples: At the end of 1970s the Americans did all to preserve the Shah’s regime in Iran, since they thought it was answering their best interests. Washington followed this line strictly and abstained itself even to infringe in an imaginable “stability”, even in the moment when it has become clear for everyone that and the state power in Iran could be overturned soon unless fundamental changes of the regime are undertaken. The result is known: Shah was overturned and the power received the people with whom the USA cannot find even a point of contact up now, after 30 years from that events.
In the South Vietnam, the USA was continuing a strong support of Nguen Van Thivu’s regime even in hat time when it became clear that for the countries population there was nothing hate on the earth than this corrupted band. Money and Time, which could be quite enough to form a more or less normal state and support to comparatively civilized political forces, were spent useless. As a result, when communists started a march to Saigon, a prevailing part of the population met them with joy or a full indifferent. Americans lost Vietnam, but despite the fact that their troops were not participated in the final battles, they introduced themselves defeated, for the whole world.
It seems that a factor of obsession plays an important role in the course of support of Saakashvili’s regime by Washington. If assess the current developments impartially, it seems that the said factor caused to the US interests in the region a damage, not a benefit.
Just during governance of this regime the Russian military forces strengthened their positions on the Georgian territory, on the south side of the Caucasian Gorge, as a result, the importance of the military place of arm of both Georgia and the USA reduced to the zero point, practically. At the same time, the Russians took under their practical control the air space of Georgia. A function of Georgia as of a transit-country, became questionable, resulted in a rapid lowering of the interest of other countries, to it. Moreover, many nations especially those from the third world, understood the 2008 August events as the fact hat the USA failed to protect its ally. At the same time, the internal policy conducted by Saakashvili, caused a sharp increase of the anti-American attitude, in almost the same degree as one can observe in the Latin American banana republics. Its interesting what a benefit the USA gained by all these events? and, which are the further surprises Saakashvili is preparing to them, if preserving his power for a long term?
During the last two years Saakashvili’s supporters are “unhappy” because Barak Obama not John McCain entered the oval room. However we can say with high probability that McCain who is distinguished himself by the ideas of confrontation with Kremlin, could use Georgia as a grenade shot to the Russia’s direction. It is difficult to count a damage caused the Russian as a result of the above, but within the limits of this scenario, it could have no importance for us, because the fate of Georgia in this case would be the same as the one of a grenade broken in f
Obama’s administration acts much more rationally. Its main priority is to minimize the global risks, that is necessary in conditions when the USA fights against the economic (and not only) crisis. On this stage, confrontation with any nation - no matter it is Russia or China (if say nothing about the European Union), is not a right way the USA could follow up. As to the USA-Russia relations, the existing controversies are in the course of settling on after another. Is the further support of Saakashvili’s power within the frameworks of the context of this logic? Perhaps, no, because he is a non- prognosticated person, still shares some dangerous theories of neocons and, to say shortly “Feels himself to b the Indiana Jones”. Although, the inertia of obsession regarding a necessary support to Saakashvili’s power, a fear of the uncontrolled destabilization in the Region, a wish of preserving the west-oriented forces in the state power, possibilities of a sharp criticism by side of the Republican Party because of “leaving lone the ally” and a number of other factors, makes it difficult for the White House to terminate fully assistance to Saakashvili and support the radical political changes in Georgia. The similar things took place several times in the US foreign policy, including the Iran and Saigon events mentioned above
The Fall Marathon
In the Closed Circle
All the aforementioned are important, inter alia, because the Americans have a very serious influence over a large part of the Georgian opposition, for practically all pro-western forces in Georgia, “a friendly advice“ is much more valuable than an own opinion or an order of a protesting electorate. If not such the “advices”, the events at the edge of 2007-2008 and in the Spring of 2009 could be developed under quite another scenario. These political Parties even today are not using all their chances provided by the difficult situation in which the governing group is. instead, they are involved with the great optimism in negotiations regarding improvement of the elections-related environment; “The state power is ready to re-consider its positions in all issues and, if the main problems are agreed, as a result of these negotiations we will receive a qualitatively new Code of Elections” – David Gamkrelidze states in conditions, where the state power’s position is quite rigid: a) No to changes in the majoritary electoral system; b) No to consideration of the early elections; c) A desire of inclusion of other parties (its satellites, presumably) in the process; d) Attempts of extending the negotiations till the Spring of the next year. At the same time, many observers are sure that “Despite the fact that a number of certain changes may be made in the Electoral Code, the “wishes” of forging the elections will in all case be remained therein.
The negotiation itself, is a wonderful thing, however, in this given case, its productivity is under a serious doubt. An approach of some of the participants of this process is understandable, because they were long ago “recommended” to prepare themselves for the 2012 elections and stop thinking about the alternative scenarios. But, a position of the “National Forum” still remains unclear.
Because of imprisonment of one of their party members they refuse to sit at the table of negotiations and, at the same time are not in a hurry to perform their promise announced at the beginning of this Fall (concerning the strong fight and achievement of the real results). Today this my be assessed as a political maneuver, but after one or two weeks, a certain disappointment may be spread through that part of the protesting electorate, who believed in the Fall promises of the “National Forum” (it is interesting, whether American partners provided them with some recommendations or not).
On his background, a radically thinking part of the society will decide what to do after November 25, when the Nino Burjanadze’s “Meeting of Peoples Representatives” is planned to be held.
At the same time, on the anniversary of the “Rosy revolution”, Saakashvili will also have a certain attempt to introduce maximally that his policy is strongly supported within the country. Therefore, a crossing point of these two lines will define a dramaturgy of the forthcoming political week.
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